For original list posted October 7, 2010.
by Louis Epstein
John Atcherley Dew, Archbishop of Wellington — cardinalitial see, predecessor retired promptly and has aged out of the electorate (but hat keeps waiting…heterodox culture in archdiocese may be a reason)
May 1948/New Zealand =>No …
Odon Marie Arsene Razanakolona, Archbishop of Antananarivo — consistently cardinalitial see,predecessor dead
May 1946/Madagascar =>No … he’s been waiting a while now!
Donald Wuerl, Archbishop of Washington — consistently cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate
Nov 1940/USA =>Yes!
Thomas Christopher Collins, Archbishop of Toronto — cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate
Jan 1947/Canadian =>No…
Paolo Romeo, Archbishop of Palermo — cardinalitial see
February 1938/Italian =>Yes!
Kazimierz Nycz, Archbishop of Warsaw — cardinalitial see, in need of clean hands (but has skipped a consistory)
February 1950/Polish =>Yes!
Reinhard Marx, Archbishop of Munich — cardinalitial see,predecessor aged out
September 1953/German =>Yes!
Laurent Monsengwo Pasinya, Archbishop of Kinshasa — apparent cardinalitial see
Oct 1939/DR Congo =>Yes!
The remaining residentials (generally added in order of appointment) ALL missed out, one can think of them as stacked up in the queue, which will be moving along as there will be 61 80th birthdays in the six years after the impending consistory:
Willem Jacobus Eijk, Archbishop of Utrecht — cardinalitial see; June 1953/Dutch
Giuseppe Betori, Archbishop of Florence — cardinalitial see; Feb 1947/Italian
Timothy Michael Dolan, Archbishop of New York — cardinalitial see; Feb 1950/USA
Orani Joao Tempesta, Archbishop of Rio de Janeiro — cardinalitial see; June 1950/Brazilian
Vincent Nichols, Archbishop of Westminster — cardinalitial see; November 1945/British
Braulio Rodriguez Plaza, Archbishop of Toledo — cardinalitial see; Jan 1945/Spanish
Andre Leonard, Archbishop of Malines-Brussels — cardinalitial see; May 1940/Belgian
Dominik Duka, Archbishop of Prague — cardinalitial see; April 1943/Czech
Cesare Nosiglia, Archbishop of Turin — cardinalitial see; Oct 1944/Italian
Jozef Kowalczyk, Archbishop of Gniezno — hitherto – cardinalitial primatial see; Aug 1938/Polish
Allen Henry Vigneron, Archbishop of Detroit — hitherto – cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate; Oct 1948/USA
Fausto Gabriel Travez Travez,Archbishop of Quito–new to usually – cardinalitial see,predecessor skipped,his dead; March 1941/Ecuadorian
In the Curia:
Raymond Leo Burke, Prefect of the Supreme Tribunal of the Apostolic Signatura — cardinalitial post
June 1948/USA =>Yes!
Angelo Amato, Prefect of the Congregation for the Causes of Saints — cardinalitial post,close associate of the Pope
June 1938/Italian =>Yes!
Fortunato Baldelli, Penitentiary Major — cardinalitial post
Aug 1935/Italian =>Yes!
Mauro Piacenza, Prefect of the Congregation for Clergy — cardinalitial post
Sept 1944/Italian =>Yes!
Francesco Coccopalmerio, President of the Pontifical Council for the Interpretation of Legislative Texts — usually-cardinalitial post
March 1938/Italian =>No…
Gianfranco Ravasi, President of the Pontifical Council for Culture — cardinalitial post
Oct 1942/Italian =>Yes!
Velasio de Paolis, President of the Prefecture for the Economic Affairs of the Holy See — generally cardinalitial post
Sept 1935/Italian =>Yes!
Antonio Maria Veglio,President of the Pontifical Council for Migrants and Itinerants — generally cardinalitial post
Feb 1938/Italian =>No…
Zygmunt Zimowski,President of the Pontifical Council for Pastoral Care of Health Care Workers — generally-cardinalitial post, but young
April 1949/Polish =>No…
Francesco Monterisi,Archpriest of the Basilica of St. Paul’s Outside the Walls — a new apparently-cardinalitial post, he was formerly secretary of the conclave, a position traditionally, if not promptly, rewarded with the cardinalate
May 1934/Italian =>Yes!
Kurt Koch,President of the Pontifical Council for the Promotion of Christian Unity — cardinalitial post, but young
March 1950/Swiss =>Yes!
Robert Sarah, President of the Pontifical Council Cor Unum — cardinalitial post
June 1945/Guinean =>Yes!
(Very fast elevation in his case, contrast with above).
The President of the Pontifical Council for Social Communications, Claudio Maria Celli (July 1941,Italian) seems a rung below eligibility. The same for the President of the Office of Labor of the Apostolic See, Giorgio Corbellini (April 1947,Italian) though Cardinals have held it; his additional appointment to head the Disciplinary Commission of the Roman Curia (succeeding a Cardinal) may however strengthen his position.
=>No … for both…
Piero Marini of the Pontifical Committee for International Eucharistic Congresses is hard to categorize, as the post has previously gone to Cardinals stepping down from more important jobs, not men stepping up from lesser ones.
=>No … again.
Likewise,Paolo Sardi(Sept 1934,Italian) being named Pro-Patron of the Sovereign Military Order of Malta is hard to read, Cardinal Foley’s hat followed his being named Pro-Patron of the Order of the Holy Sepulchre but Archbishop Sardi retains the non-cardinalitial post of Vice-Camerlengo. =>Yes!
(The Vatican announcement actually only mentioned the Vice-Camerlengo post,which he will surely be giving up).
Not sure about the dean of the Rota,Antoni Stankiewicz (Poland,Oct 1935) the post seems to have lost cardinalitial status though he was named a bishop in 2006.The last Pope did seem to offer preferment to Poles…. not this one so far. =>No …
Marian Golebiewski(Sept 1937),archbishop of Wroclaw, is another Polish candidate. =>No …
Nikola Eterovic,Secretary-General of the Synod of Bishops (Jan 1951,Croatian) is in a post whose holders seem to get to the cardinalate SLOWLY,and is young enough to wait a while yet…so he’s been waiting.
Antonios Naguib,Patriarch of the Copts(March 1935/Egyptian) is in another position whose incumbents often wait, but his predecessor has died and that may raise his chances. =>Yes!
So a conclave in December 2014-March 2015 could be presided over by an Eastern Rite Patriarch if no new men are named to suburbicarian sees in the meantime.(His predecessor was a cardinal only when over 80,but HIS predecessor voted in 1978).
James Harvey of the Pontifical Household (Oct 1949,USA) might be made a cardinal if he gets replaced in his job! =>No…
Slovakia may be given an elector as Korec and Tomko have both aged out,though Stanislav Zvolenski(Nov 1958) of Bratislava and Robert Bezak(March 1960) of Trnava,until recently one see, would be daring choices.Likewise dramatically young would be Ukraine’s Mieczyslaw Mokrzycki(Mar 1961),but despite his closeness to the late Pope Latin-Lviv’s cardinalitial track record is unclear. =>No …
I expect that some African and Asian prelates will likely be added. The erection of Trivandrum, Syro-Malankarese rite into a Major Archeparchy may make it cardinalitial like Lviv and Ernakulam-Angamaly, but new ordinary Isaac Mar Cleemis Thottunkal (June 1959) would be remarkably young for a modern Cardinal. =>No …
The similar promotion of the Romanian church may yet redound to the benefit of Lucian Muresan(May 1931/Romanian). =>No …
A successor to Cardinal Vithayathil in Ernakulam-Angamaly would be likely. Ikenaga or Okada of Japan are less likely options, but Japan now has no cardinals. =>No …
Someone from Oceania (Apia-Samoa’s Alapati Mataeliga,predecessor is dead, or somewhere else this time,since he’s young(Jan 1953)?) is likely. Jose Serofia Palma (Mar 1950,Philippines) became a likely candidate when he succeeded a cardinal as Archbishop of Cebu,but may wait also. =>No …
Certainly more Latin Americans.(Hard to say which). Ruben Salazar Gomez (Feb 1942,Colombian) just got a see whose incumbents have been known to wait for the hat. =>No …
In Brazil,some large sees are only establishing cardinalitial track records. Walmor Oliveira de Azevedo of Belo Horizonte (April 1954), =>No …
Joao Braz de Aviz of Brasilia (April 1947), =>No …
CELAM President Raymundo Damasceno Assis of Aparecida (Feb 1937, predecessor dead), =>Yes!
His being the oldest of this bunch might have more or less to do with it than his election to head CELAM? and Jose Antonio Aparecido Tosi Marques of Fortaleza(May 1948) seem leading candidates. =>No …
Those who appear to have been passed over include Luigi de Magistris,former Pro-Penitentiary Major(Feb 1926), presumably lost his chance with the job(but was rumored as an over-80); Michael Louis Fitzgerald(August 1937/British),
sent from the apparently cardinalitial post of President of the Pontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue to a nunciature; Raphael Ndingi Mwanaa Keki of Nairobi(Dec 1931), succeeded a cardinal but retired at 75 without the hat in favor of a man who immediately got it; Stanislaw Wielgus(April 1939/Polish),forced to step down as Archbishop of Warsaw over secret-police ties; Jan Sokol(Sept 1933), retired as Slovakia’s senior archbishop after both its electors had aged out; Henryk Muszynski(March 1933/Polish), retired as Archbishop of Gniezno and Primate of Poland as the first such since 1915 never made a Cardinal =>No again for all of them…
and Raul Eduardo Vela Chiriboga(Jan 1934/Ecuadorian),retired as Archbishop of Quito,and the first in many years never made a Cardinal. =>But … Yes!
(Ranjith I didn’t think could get it at the first chance since the only previous cardinal from his see didn’t come close, while Mazombwe (who turns 80 next September) was totally out of left field,and the four over-80s were typically obscure.)