Prior Darien N. Clark post: Sudden Resignation of Vincenzo DiMauro, Bishop of Vigevano (Italy) — Is There A Connection? — July 21, 2012.
Darien’s last papabili list: March 3, 2012.
Check the ‘Next Pope‘ category for other papabili posts (or do a search) and use search with ‘Darien‘ for more of his posts, including his Cardinalabili lists.
by Darien N Clark
Virginia Tech Catholic Campus Minister & Past Grand Knight, Knights of Columbus (Syracuse University)
Seeing as we’re in the summer down-time for new appointments, now was a good a time as any to re-examine the Papabili picture. I’ll re-examine Cardinalabili towards the end of summer. No point in doing so now when there will be a host of appointments before the beginning of fall which could shake up the landscape.
In terms of Papabili, please give credit to Fr. John and some of his information from this post. It was quite helpful in terms of thinking about each mans style and theological persuasion. Although, I did disagree with his assessment of Amato as solidly in the “conservative” camp. He seems more moderate than conservative to me.
Nevertheless, the list is attached.
● Given the recent events, my belief is the Cardinals are shifting towards choosing a, younger and stronger leader who can be Pope for 10-15 years. The key is lead for 10-15 years, not live for 10-15 years only to cede control during the aging process. What has occurred in the last year + has been quite sad to watch, and most undignifying for Pope Benedict. He deserves better. But his personality and age limit his ability to be in full command. He has always been much more an academic than a rottweiler. And his aging has not done him any favors in that regard. Thus men who are nearer 70 have a better shot, in my belief, than those nearer 80. Thus, overall my list is generally younger than Anura’s.
● I am highly skeptical of the idea that the next Pope will be of African descent. Anura has mentioned several times on this blog the “Obama Factor,” is a likely cause. And I very much agree with that assertion.
● I am willing to contend that the next pope might not be European. There are two or three Cardinals from the western hemisphere who will get a look.
● Notably missing on this list from my previous list is (Lord) Cardinal Bertone. If the events of the last year have taught us anything, it is that Bertone does not have many friends outside of Pope Benedict; particularly among the Cardinals. This general contempt for Bertone will almost certainly block his candidacy. But that does not mean he has lost all his influence in the College. The Bertone camp still exists in enough numbers to influence the election, just not to elect Bertone.
● Ouellet is still my #1. His hands are clean of all the unpleasantness that has come out of Rome recently which will not go unnoticed at the next consistory. He clearly had the respect of JPII who made him Archbishop of Quebec (and by virtue, Primate of all Canada). Benedict XVI has furthered his career and respect by appointing him to arguably the most helpful post for a potential Pope: the Congregation for Bishops. There are numerous men all across the world, who, in some respect, owe their Bishopric to Ouellet. Some of these men already have a red-hat and if Benedict has another consistory before the next conclave, more still will have received appointments during Ouellet’s tenure at the Congregation.
● Cardinal Scola leads the charge for the moderate-conservative faction, as well as the Italians. Affable and articulate, Scola has the potential to be another Pope loved by the world for his grace and charm. His only other real competition within the moderate camp would be Cardinal Sandri. So long as the Cardinals are not looking for a Latin American, Scola should be the standard bearer for the moderates.
● Cardinal Amato has shot up to #3 on my list. Amato has moved up because I see him as a potential “compromise” choice. Say the Ouellet and Scola camps deadlock, Amato could very well emerge on the balcony of St. Peter’s wearing white. He is not so old that his health and Pontificate will deteriorate quickly, but not so young that he will have the longevity of John Paul II. Like Ouellet, his hands are clean from the current brouhaha. While Amato is certainly a traditionalist in his application of orthodox theology (as are all the Cardinals, it’s the application that differs), he is not on the extremes, as say, Canizares-Llovera or even as far over as Ouellet. A middle-of-the-road choice, if you will. Traditionalist enough to keep the far-right camp happy but moderate enough to satisfy the middle.
● Sitting in 4th is the Argentinian born Cardinal Sandri. Generally regarded as a moderate, he would be another favorite of the Latin American camp. His candidacy is largely based on his Latin American roots. If it appears that the Cardinals are looking away from Europe, Sandri would leapfrog Scola to the front of the line for the moderates. His other major plus is his diplomatic experience. Three years as a nuncio and an additional seven as Sostituto. None of the other frontrunners have his diplomatic credentials. Though he is a curialists-curialist, Ouellet will likely get the support of the Curia.
● Cardinal Maradiaga rounds out the top 5 on my list. I see him as the true wild-card. Generally traditionalist-conservative but pastoral in nature. He is a complete outsider to the Vatican. This will appeal to the residential Cardinals looking for a reduction of the heavy-handedness of the current Curia, particularly residential Cardinals coming from the developing and undeveloped world whose visits to Rome are often filled with condescension treatment from the Curialists.
● 6-10: Contenders who have potential but need a few dominos to fall their way. Ravasi is a longtime curialist, but nothing really sticks out about him thus far. Vingt-Trois has done an admirable job in the largely secular-humanist city of Paris, conservative without shoving it down your throat. He and Cardinal Schonborn will lead the day if the Cardinals look to stay in Europe but continue to avoid Italians. Schonborn also verbally eviscerated his brother Cardinals for their poor handling of sex abuse, which could assist his chances if the Cardinals are looking for a Pope who can effectively handle the abuse issue. Spaniards Abril y Castello and Canizares-Llovera are niche candidates. Castello would be the top transitional candidate. Middle of the road and no spring chicken; the 5-8 year caretaker Pope. Canizares-Llovera is the Merry del Val or Siri of today. He is the arch-conservative and is not likely to be elected, but will get some votes from the most traditionalist Cardinals.