Jan 112012
 

Anura Guruge, laughing, picture November 16, 2011.

  by Anura Guruge

Refer to the ‘Consistory‘ TAB right at the top, above the banner ((↑)), for all the requisite links, including those for the February 18, 2012 consistory.


As is well known by now, we will have, barring deaths, 125 cardinal electors on February 18, 2012, once Pope Benedict XVI (#266) creates his latest crop of 22 cardinals. That is 5 above the 120 electors permitted by Church law from participating in a conclave.

Barring deaths, here is the schedule for cardinals aging out to bring that number down to 120:

Click to ENLARGE.

So, barring deaths, it will be July 26, 2012, before we are back to conformity — that is 5 month, 1 week (162 day) window of ‘opportunity’. To be fair, if there were to be a conclave while we had more than 120 electors it will not be the end of the world. [Lord Bertone will call up 5 (maybe 10 if he really wants to make sure) that he is sure will not vote for him and tell them to call-in-sick and stay at home — and if not, they would indeed feel very sickly if they show their faces in Rome. Ok. Ok. I am joking. Or am I?] I have discussed all of the options that can be used, and the pros and cons of each, on page 305 of  ‘The Next Pope 2011‘:

Page 305 of Anura Guruge's 'The Next Pope 2011' book

5 over the limit is kids’ play compared to the 15 over the limit favored by John Paul II (#265) in 2001 and again in 2003.

What is intriguing is that going over the limit seems to indicate that the pope is extremely au fait with anticipated mortality. This pope, a stickler for traditions and rules, is unlikely to want a ‘messy’ situation upon his death — which would have to be taken care of, immediately, by hot papabile, Lord Bertone. So we have the scenario that though the pope appears to be ailing, he is very confident (most likely because he has confirmation from above) that he will be around till at least August 2012. That is consistent with my feelings. As I have repeatedly maintained, this pope may be ailing but he will be around for a few more years.

  2 Responses to “Barring Deaths, 162 Days Above 120 Elector Limit Following February 18, 2012 Cardinal Creating Consistory”

  1. Barring a spate of deaths, new diaconates will definitely need to be created, new priestly titles might be. Wonder if Dolan would get S. Patrizio since Egan still has SS. Giovanni e Paolo…he would be the first incumbent not to be Archbishop of Armagh and deny Patrizio to Brady’s successor there.

  2. Just saw this little paragraph in an article in Vatican Insider today and I had to chuckle,

    “Other less prominent candidates are the Bishop of Terni Vincenzo Paglia and the Archbishop of Chieti Bruno Forte. There are also three outsiders, the Bishop of Trieste, Gianpaolo Crepaldi, the Bishop of Piacenza Gianni Ambrosio and St. Peter’s Archpriest Cardinal Angleo Comastri. In the unlikely event that this last candidate were to be sent to Venice, the position of Archpriest in the Vatican Basilica would become vacant and it might be taken on by Cardinal Tarcisio Bertone who would then combine three offices, Secretary of State, Camerlengo and Archpriest- This happened before in the past with Cardinal Eugenio Pacelli who later became Pius XII.

    Bertone really, really wants all the power and assure himself the next pope-elect!!!

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