STRONGLY RECOMMENDED
Papabili 2011 (The Next Pope) Snap Shot [with many germane links]. March 3, 2011 post.
by Darien N Clark
Past Grand Knight, Knights of Columbus, Mother Marianne Cope Council 14260 at Syracuse University
Cardinal Marc Ouellet, papabili stature continues to strengthen
Darien, a long-time collaborator of this blog, submitted a papabili list in October 2010 once the names of those that were going to be created at the November 20, 2010 consistory had been announced.
This is the updated papabili list for 2011. I’ll do my best to respond to questions/comments and should be able to do so for this list as compared to my previous one given that I have finished my degree and no longer have coursework.
1. Marc Ouellet [Oct 2010 ranking #1, also in Anura Guruge's top 3]
2. Tarscio Bertone [Oct 2010 ranking #3, also in Anura Guruge's top 3]
3. Ennio Antonelli [Oct 2010 ranking #6]
4. Leonardo Sandri [Oct 2010 ranking #2]
5. Angelo Scola [Oct 2010 ranking #10]
6. Claudio Hummes
7. Antonio Cañizares Llovera [in Anura Guruge's top 3]
8. Odilo Pedro Scherer [Oct 2010 ranking #4]
9. Andre Armand Vignt-Trois [Oct 2010 ranking #7]
10. Jose da Cruz Policarpo
[In Oct. 2010 list, but not on this one: William Levada (#5), Francis Arinze (#8) & Peter Turkson (#9).]
A few explanations as to who is where and why:
• Ouellet: You aren’t made Prefect for the Congregation of Bishops without having the full confidence of the current Pope. Plus his hands are clean in terms of the sex-abuse crisis.
• Bertone: Not so much 2 as 1A. It depends on the mood of the Cardinals at the time of Conclave. If they’re looking for another shorter length Papacy then Bertone gets the nod. If they’re comfortable with a long Papacy (20 years perhaps) Ouellet gets the nod.
• Llovera and Hummes: Join the list from my previous version. Their names have been appearing more often as of late. Plus Hummes is from a religious order which could work in his favor.
• Vignt-Trois: Moved down a few spots from my previous listing but still on. There has been something of a trend with Popes from nations who have gone a long time without a Pope (or never before). His hands are clean and has shown to be an able Archbishop in a secularized state.
Missed the cut:
• Schonborn: The issues I highlighted in my first list still exist here. An unfortunate incident with the youth Mass with liturgical abuses rampant can hurt him. Additionally Austria is awfully close to Germany which might give the Cardinals pause.
• Bergoglio: There will not be a Jesuit Pope. I’d put every last cent in my bank account down on a bet against a Jesuit Pope at the next Conclave.
• Burke: American. If only he weren’t from the US he would be an interesting candidate. His youth and proclivity for speaking too much in front of microphones would also hurt him if he were from some other country.
21 Responses to “Darien Clark’s Latest Papabili List”
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Thanks for an interesting blog. I think your choice is interesting, but despite what has been written here before,
I find it difficult believe that the Cardinals will consider another candidate over the age of 75. To my mind Cardinal Ratzinger was such an outstanding figure that he was chosen even though he was already 78 years old.
I very much doubt that among the Cardinals there would be anything like enough support for Bertone, even if he were younger. There would be much opposition, I think.
If we have another two consistories during this pontificate the who scene will have changed. The next Pope may well not yet be a cardinal.
Dear Father,
Thank you. I just e-mailed Darien and suggested that he respond to this too.
Your last statement may very well be the case: ‘the next pope may well not be a cardinal as yet.’
What you say about ‘what has been written here before’ is also very true. You are right. Thank you.
I have some new thoughts about Cardinal Bertone.
I think he wields considerable more influence with the College than we give him credit. I have said that this was a lame duck pope, hamstrung by the controversies, sex abuse in the fore, that he has had to contend with. I am also beginning to think that AGE is a factor. This has become a moribund papacy. Now Father, YOU are so qualified to respond to what I am going to say next — given that you were there, in person, in Rome, during that period. I have read that Paul VI slowed down the pace of the Vatican, intentionally — starting c. 1972 (obviously post the uproar of Humanae Vitae. I have a feeling the same thing has happened again. The pope has put the brakes on — partly because he does not want to cope with a more energetic agenda. We also now know that John Paul II was ‘out of the picture’ c. 2003. There is a vacuum and even if it is the Vatican … it has to be satisfied, if not filled. I think this is where Bertone comes in.
Yes, he has clique. Cliques are useful. The question is how BIG is that clique. I think his clique numbers at least 50.
MY picture of the Bertone clique (and this is sheer speculation) that it is the more ‘earthy,’ FOOTBALL loving crowd. The ROWDY element of the College.
This is the nudge-nudge, wink-wink bunch and I see Bertone as a true “man’s man” among the cardinals … one who would RIB another cardinal (from say Africa or Latin America) with stuff such as: ‘so how is the wife?’ ‘how old is your latest boy toy?’ and ‘so, how many kids do you have now?’ But, this is where it gets fascinating. I think, Bertone, in his capacity, actually knows the answers to ALL those questions — and ALL the cardinals know that he has the real skinny on each and every one of them. Though not Sicilian, I think (I could be wrong), Bertone has ‘connections.’
I think these connections WILL come into play at the next conclave — per what Bertone wishes. He will be one of the king makers — and IF he wants to be king, I think he will get the votes.
The moribundity has led to discontent in some sectors of the College. I think Bertone is exploiting that and it will stand him in good stead.
Post 9/11 the whole world has become more political — everything becoming more polarized and political by the day. The next conclave, in my opinion, will be the most political in 600 years!
There will be many factions, some of it on geographic, geo-political lines.
Bertone might be the only one that can SECURE votes from SOME from each faction. But, all of this is speculation.
He may not speak ‘English’ per se IN PUBLIC, but I sure get the impression that the smiling Bertone sure knows the language, tone and tenor of the College. BUT, I could be wrong.
Cardinal Marc REMAINS my #1 AND my Latin American pick (and that is not because he is from Canada — though if you look at the Canadian cricket team for the World Cup you could be mistaken that Canada was next door to Guyana).
All the best. THANK YOU. Peace.
Anura
Fr. Anthony, I have some doubts about an older Pope. I tried to show that with some balance on my list between older and younger Cardinals. In his post Anu points out the power and connectedness of Cardinal Bertone. That is how he specifically lands at #2 on my list. He is, arguably, the most powerful man in the Vatican behind the Holy Father. The only other Cardinal with Bertone’s level of influence and prestige would be Cardinal Ouellet as “Bishop maker.” I still put my eggs in Ouellet’s basket but I would not be surprised to see Bertone.
Your point about the possibility of more BXVI consistories is well taken. It is very possible that our next Pope is not yet even a Cardinal. Which of course begs the question, who are currently non-Cardinals which could rocket to Papabili in the next few years? An interesting thought. I took a quick look at the site http://www.catholic-hierarchy.org, which I find is an excellent resource for all the worlds bishops and diocese. The following names are by no means exhaustive but food for thought of current local Archbishops who are not yet Cardinals and whose See traditionally gets the holder a Red Hat: Ricardo Ezzati Andrello-Archbishop of Santiago Chile, Jesús Rubén Salazar Gómez-Archbishop of Bogota Colombia, Dominik Duka O.P.-Archbishop of Prague Czech Republic, Vincent Gerard Nichols-Archbishop of Westminster (London), Giuseppe Betori-Archbishop of Florence.
Dear Anura,
Your comments are fascinating and, to me, surprising. I must say that I don’t really recognize the Bertone you describe!. Neither do I recognize the “moribundity” you describe.
I would make a distinction between the Pope and the Curia, a distinction that is not always understood. The strengths of Benedict are his erudition and obvious spiritual depth. He is unmistakably a “Holy Father”. His writings are very important. His new book on Jesus is having important effects in the Catholic/Jewish relations, also in the Catholic/ Protestant dialogue. He is also concerned to promote a genuine liturgical renewal in the Church. I would certainly agree with your comments in so far as the Curia does not serve as an effective instrument for carrying out the wishes of the Pope.
I certainly see much moribundity there. In my view the next Pope needs to be young enough and strong enough to tackle these problems. Whether that will happen or not is another matter! I certainly hope so.
I am not sure that Paul VI slowed things down intentionally, but thet did slow down. I think it was partly his health and his temperament. He was prone to depression, and never quite recovered from the shock of the reaction to “Humane Vitae” and the “revolt” of the Lefevbrists. I personally don’t see the same thing today, but I do see a curia in urgent need of a radical renewal..
Let’s see what others think of your comments and mine.
I hope that Darren will reply, and others too.
God bless
Dear Father,
Thank you for your comments and YES, let us see what other have to say.
Father, I was thinking about the pope and his moribundity on my run this morning. I always have a list of topics that I crunch through while running.
INTERESTINGLY, your response hit the nail right smack dab on the head as to what I was thinking — especially as I had TWEETED on Thursday, as to the availability of the pope’s latest book. And you, rightly, bring up his extensive writing. This to me is a carry-over from his long tenure as a ‘publish or be damned’ academic. He is now pope. He doesn’t have to devote x% of his energies to promoting his writing. John Paul II is still being accused of promoting a cult of personality, as opposed to papacy. In my eyes this pope, though lacking the personality of his predecessor, is trying to emulate that. A legacy of self, rather than a legacy of a pontificate. I used to belong to Rotary. Their motto says it best: service before self.
There is much to be done in terms of reform pertaining to the curia, College of Cardinals and papal elections. Also a lot of ground to be covered in terms of the disenchanted Catholics. But, the pope only appears to have a very short list of items that appear to interest him with the Latin Mass appearing to be at the epicenter.
I had already, on my run, thought of a possible project for Darien. I will ask him that shortly, against his comment.
If the curia needs to be reformed the pope should be doing it — UNLESS, of course, Cardinal Bertone, is distracting the pope from doing so, because right now he CERTAINLY appears to be running the shop while the pope is busy, head-down writing.
But, lets see. THANK YOU, father.
Anura
Darien,
Thank YOU.
YOU made me SMILE … a pope from Britain! In your neck of the woods, OK maybe slightly more to the South, isn’t there a variation of the ‘does a bear ….?’ that goes ‘is the pope Catholic?’ A pope from Britain would definitely have the boys from Jersey confused as to whether the pope was still Catholic.
Yes, you know I am with YOU on Ouellet, my LATIN American pick. [[ smile ]]
Darien, thought of another possible project for you and relates directly to Father Anthony’s comments today and my response.
Would you be interested in using the Vatican Web site and doing a comparison of the published papal output of this pope vs. John Paul II during their first 6 years … and by papal output I am referring to constitutions, encyclicals, motu proprios etc. You have to assume that John Paul II faced quite a learning curve when he became pope. He had hardly spent any time at the Vatican. In marked contrast, this pope, had a head-start — possibly only matched by that of Pacelli, and this pope didn’t have WW II to distract him.
I would do it, but have a ton on my plate right now.
All the best. Thanks.
Darien,
I was doing some research into the extra-curricular activities of cardinals when I ran into this. The Daily Mail is MY paper of choice for news. I used to have it delivered when I lived in the UK and read-it before I started the day. [I would look at page 3 of the Sun later in the day -- during my travels].
In general I believe 99.1% of what appears in the Mail. So here is an interesting, topical piece, dated March 10, 2011 … and as ever tactful I won’t even ask Father Anthony whether he was invited.
Just for the record I was NEVER sure about Tony. Saw a movie about him recently … his relationship with the Shrub. Come to think of it, I am not sure that I really have warmed to any British PM since Major.
Enjoy. Cheers.
Fr Anthony…when you speak of liturgical renewal,are you speaking in terms of restoration or renovation?…and how would a Pope who preferred one retain the allegiance of those faithful who are convinced that the future lies only with the other?
Didn’t think you were around. Thought you had taken a sabbatical.
I Tweeted this earlier today, thought it would amuse you: I can just about understand why we document pseudocardinals. But, now we have quasi-pseudocardinal! Come on. This is getting crazy.
Cheers.
Anu,
My apolagies that I could not reply sooner. I’d be happy to look into that for you. I’ll begin researching that for you and have it in your inbox by the end of the week. It may take that long as we (the Diocese of Syracuse) are welcoming Fr. Peter West to speak on pro-life issues which will consume most of my Tuesday and Wednesday. If possible can you send me an email with more details as to exactly what you are looking for, or was the post above substantive in regards to the information you seek?
A Pope from Britain, unlikely I know. But Nichols currently occupies one of Europe’s “Red Hat” sees that does not have a red hat at present. Whether he would really be Papabili, most likely not. While I’m still in the UK; perhaps it is because I am American born and raised, and have (quite sadly) never visited the UK, my impression of any news source not called the BBC is that it’s not always reliable. However you lived there and if you found the Daily Mail to be reputable then consider my understanding of reliable British news-media better for it. Do you remember my reaction to the topless-acrobats story? It is similar here. Is there any way we can put all notable Priests in locked cells so they cannot do this type of damage? I certainly hope this is one of those stories that falls in your .9% of less-than-truthful reporting.
Fr. Anthony,
I started paying attention to the, for want of a better term, academic side of my faith when I entered college. The hierarchy, Canon Law, Doctrinal issues were not on my radar until that time when I had to take my faith into my own hands. I say this because I am certainly not nearly as experienced in watching Rome and trying to understand the nuances of our faith as you. I could be interpreting this entirely the wrong way. As I see the Curia from where I am Bertone holds the most important office after Pope. He is, as best I can tell, analogous to combining the entire US Presidential Cabinet into one man. That gives him quite a bit of power and makes him very well connected. I hope that gives you a sense of why Bertone to me is in the position he is.
Darien
Darien,
Thank you. That would be great. The meeting with Fr. Peter West sounds very interesting and you should no doubt get a lot from it. Well done. Darien, no hurry. Take your time. What I was thinking about was first-cut, high-level look to see how active the two popes were, in their first six years, in terms of ‘legislation’ that changed outlook, practices, protocols etc. Just looking at the ‘legislative’ output, in terms of publications, will suffice. We don’t need to analyze the merits of the decisions. Just a measure of how active each was in trying to reshape the Church, the curia and the papacy. Thanks Darien.
You are right about the reputation garnered by the British tabloids, though all tabloids cannot be tarred with the same brush. Their is an hierarchy of credibility and the Daily Mail heads that. Plus, interestingly, the most sensational (and consequently the most entertaining, without fail), ‘The News of the World‘ was a broadsheet. British papers get sued regularly for libel so they try to get much of what they say right since defending libel cases is an expensive hobby. I did do a bit more digging around on the Tony Blair story. It seems kosher. I am surprised that it appears that I am the ONLY one that was struck by the good Father’s name: ‘Seed.’ ‘Seedy,’ particularly in Britain, is synonymous with disreputable. So if this had been on April 1, I would have cried foul or maybe just fowl. But, it was dated March 10. Darien, I wouldn’t worry about. I am sure much worse happens and has happened. What is happening in Philadelphia is mind boggling.
While I have no problems with more British cardinals, I do not think the Catholic world is ready for a British pope, in much the same way that I repeatedly said during 2007-2009, the US will first have a black president before they have a female one. I ewas obviously right on that … and I am now kind of getting my mind ready for Michele Bachmann for President, especially after she, so touchingly, yesterday, while in NH, not once BUT twice, associated our dear capital, Concord … with the other one down South.
All the best Darien. Cheers.
Oh, oh. Somebody is doing Google searches on ‘Louis Epstein’. 4 came my way. Just a heads-up.
Dear Father,
You say: The strengths of Benedict are his erudition and obvious spiritual depth. He is unmistakably a “Holy Father”.
Today, just in ONE VIS bulletin (Summary: 12 – 14 March), I see these statements attributed by the Vatican to the pope:
‘Finally the Pope asked everyone to pray for him and his collaborators in the Roman Curia as they begin their annual Lenten spiritual exercises this evening.’
Why? Does God have to be told by us of this event, when the pope is supposed to have a special relationship. Plus, shouldn’t God KNOW anyway, without having to be reminded — like he was a 83 year old man, with a bad memory?
‘He prays for those who have died‘
Why? What good does that do anybody. He can’t intercede on behalf of the dead. If he could, he should have … before they died. Their fate is already sealed.
‘Holy Father also expresses his prayerful solidarity with all those providing rescue …’
What does that mean? What is he praying for? Whenever anybody, let alone the pope, starts praying after a natural disaster, I always see it as a great affront to God. God knows. He doesn’t need to be told.
So, dear Father. This is my dilemma. This to me smacks of a superstitious, elderly man not thinking too clearly about the implications of what he is saying and doing … and just going through age-old motions, in rote fashion without imparting any intellectual bearings into the proceedings. I believe that at some point in his life he had all of this sorted out. There is no doubt that he was an intellectual and good at what he did. But, this stuff, gives me pause. I was HOPING that he might have handled this crisis in a more contemporary manner and thus demonstrate that he really weighs each and every word he utters in situations like this. Never mind. I KNOW that these FORMULA words comforts many — but I will argue, till the cows come home, that this is because they do NOT give enough thought to what prayer means.
Thank you father. All the best.
Anura
This is SO FUNNY … especially when I remember the folks that have talked about something along the lines of the seamless transition of Judaism to Christianity. I guess the only excuse is that the flight attendants, this being Alaska Airlines (Obama’s airline), must have all been born and raised in Kenya, and as such had no idea, whatsoever, of the Abrahamic religions. I did, however, to MY joy learn something (and that always makes me happy). Mexico has at least 3 Orthodox Jews. Wow. I would never have guessed that. Reminds me … with Tsunamis in the news again … one of my favorite stories from tragic 2004 Sri Lankan Tsuanmi … and the question about Sri Lankan Jews/Juice.
Enjoy.
Dear Anura,
It would take more time than I have to respond to the points you make. Prayer for the living and the dead is part and parcel of our Catholic tradition. It was Jesus Himself who told us to ask the Father for all that we need even though He knows all that we need.We certainly do pray and intercede with God on behalf of those who have died. All these theological questions are discussed in the Catechism of the Catholic Church. You are, of course free to accept or reject some or all of the teachings of the Catholic Church, but you must expect the Pope to be a believing Catholic.
My interest in this website is in the speculation about future developments in the Church and the Papacy. I enjoy the contributions people make, and will offer any ideas of mine but I am afraid that I am just too busy to enter into complicated questions of theology which flow from the Catholic Faith. I look forward to more insights from others on the future of the Papacy.
I am not suggesting that the points you raise are not important, simply that I have no time to enter into long and complicated e-mail discussion of these things.
All the best Anura to you, and to all the other contributors.
Dear Father,
Not a problem.
Father, you don’t have to reply. Yes, I know your interest is in the next pope, so please focus on that.
I just wish that there would be some concession made for 2,000 years of water flowing from the Sea of Galilee. There have obviously been innovations since the time of Jesus — the pope being one of them. So obviously it is possible to make changes.
The written words are sometimes so incongruous. It was Jesus Himself who told us to ask the Father for all that we need even though He knows all that we need. Was Jesus talking in the 3rd person. Wouldn’t it have been simpler to say ‘Ask me …’
But, bottom line … YOU do not have to answer these questions. I have many. And I do not expect answers to many of them here … BUT I sure plan to pin God down on them when we meet (and I hope he provides divine red wine) — which I am assuming will be soon. [As for the wine, I guess when you are in heaven all of that is readily available like a divine BEST room-service. I only have one real question about heaven but am kind of embarrassed to ask you -- it has to do with my wife. I will get to heaven much, much sooner than her. So ... what am I supposed to do while I am waiting. Kind of gets complicated. But, I won't bother you with that stuff. But, I am looking forward to the red wine ... PLUS being able to drink as much as I want! Not a worry, BUT something else that I think about. You are already DEAD. You are in heaven. You have eternal life. So NO health concerns. So you can drink like a fish. So will I have to contend with a bunch of drunk Irish alcoholics in heaven ... not that I am complaining ... since I will most likely hang out with them? See, Father, that is the level of stuff I worry about. No wonder my doctors say that worry will kill me.]
Thanks. Cheers.
Si
Anura,
Fr. Anthony’s right: you should read the Catechism on prayer to see what the Church teaches about it and why the Church teaches what she does about prayer. The whole fourth part is called “Christian Prayer.”
In the mean time, though, I wonder, if you think we should not pray for the dead and that we should not pray for things God already knows about, what exactly do YOU pray for? What on earth (or in Heaven) can you possibly have to say to God that He doesn’t already know all about? Even your deepest desires are better known to Him than to you. It sounds to me like under your theory, no one should ever pray for anything ever.
Also, regarding Heaven, please remember that your marriage lasts only until “death do us part” and that in Heaven, as Jesus says, “they neither marry nor are given in marriage.” This is precisely why celibacy and virginity are described by the Church as eschatological signs–they are a preview of the kind of life all of the Blessed lead in Heaven. But don’t worry, the joys (and pleasures) of Heaven will be much greater than anything you’ve had on earth, so you won’t feel like you’re missing out.
Keep the Faith,
Andrew.
I do not pray!
I am glad about heaven though. Always have worried that I would miss out on the fun. That is what has always bugged me about ice fishing. I used live waterfront for a long time. I would watch these guys out on the ice for hours, while I am warm and cozy, most likely a glass of wine in my hand …. Then I would WORRY. Is there something I am missing? That would be terrible.
I haven’t had much on earth, so I am plenty due. So, I can’t wait.
Thanks.
Why not an Asian or from one of the Top 3 Biggest Catholic Nations?
Please refer to this post … towards the end … the next pope will NOT be from Africa, Asia, Oceania, USA, Cuba, Germany or Poland.
Yes, the next pope could be from Brazil possibly even Mexico.
Does that help?
Thanks.
Yes. Thanks a lot.