Jul 052011
by Fr. John
Please do not copy or plagiarize this information.
Yes, this information needs to be widely circulated, but please do so noting the original author and source.
Fr. John (of Philadelphia) over the last 18 months has really become a proven master at this. He was nearly spot on come last October’s announcement of the new cardinals.
So here is Fr. John’s definitive latest list.
If you prefer it as a PDF click <here> (but remember that this document is copyright protected).
34 Responses to “Fr. John’s Exclusive Cardinalabili 2012 List”
Sorry, the comment form is closed at this time.
Hmmm…why would the Valencian be at the head of the list?
Marini is mis-coded…as I note on my list,he represents a change in the appointment of Presidents of the Pontifical Committee for the International Eucharistic Congresses,all of his predecessors having been cardinals for years before moving down to that job from heading a more prestigious dicastery.
The Valencian is #3 … right?
The way I was taught to count 1 and 2 come BEFORE 3. So how can #3 be at the HEAD of the list. More like the belly button of the list.
Cheers
Head of the list in terms of the highest category of probability,the yellow boxes numbered among those who would be named for only the six existing vacancies.(The #1 for Cebu also seems extravagant,it’s a Fr John rather than Pope Benedict priority).
Not a single apostolic nuncius in the list…
The reason the Valencian was number three is because his predecessor, Agustín García-Gasco Vicente, turned 80 on February 12, 2011. He was the 3rd Cardinal to turn 80 after the last consistory. The Spaniards usually do not wait too long to receive the red hat, either. Benedict loves the Spanish hierarchy. Additionally, Agustin passed away on May 1st, so the Archdiocese is void of any Red. More assurances of one at the first opportunity.
Marini was coded that way precisely because none of his predecessors were made Cardinals with that title. I do not think that post necessitates a Red Hat in and of itself. No one was made a cardinal because of it. I think he will either have to do more time in that position or get another job to get the red hat. A Pontifical Committee is way down there on the food change, a ring above Pontifical Academies, which do not have Cardinal Presidents. Even the Pontifical Offices only have about half of their heads with a red hat and a Committee is below that.
Eterovic is also mis-coded,the three previous secretaries of the synod all became Cardinals.
@ Bernardo . . . most Apostolic Nuncio’s get another job in the Curia before they are made Cardinals. Under previous Popes before JPII it was more common practice to make Nuncio’s Cardinals, but that is when the Italians had a monopoly on the College of Cardinals and most Nuncio’s were Italian. However, I am going to but Pietro Sambi on the list soon, he is rumored to go to Rome and I am betting he will become the next Grand Master of the Equestrian Order of the Holy Sepulchre of Jerusalem since Cardinal Foley resigned due to failing health.
@ Louis . . . Eterovic is NOT mis-coded . . . a little history about the three previous secretaries of the synod. Yes, they all became Cardinals, but it was because they got promoted to other positions. The General Secretary of the Synod is an Office of the Roman Curia. Not all heads of the Offices are made Cardinals.
Schotte was made Secretary in 1985, then made President of the Labor Office of the Apostolic See in 1989 and didn’t become a Cardinal until 1994
Tomko was made Secretary in 1979, then in 1985 became Prefect of the Congregation for the Evangelization of the People and became Cardinal a month after.
Rubin wast the first Secretary in 1967 and served for 13 years without a Red Hat until his fellow Pole was made Pope. Then in 1979 he was made Cardinal and also became Prefect for the Congregation of the Oriental Churches at the same time.
ERGO . . . Eterovic, until he is promoted to another position, is properly coded in a position which in and of itself does not customarily get a Red Hat.
It is rare for Nuncios to be named,are any current ones deemed of sufficient stature?(Those to the USA usually get the hat,but Sambi is too early in his tenure to be promoted to Rome).
Cardinal Garcia-Gasco Vicente was the first Cardinal of Valencia in 85 years…Salvador Miranda notes the wish of King Alfonso XIII that the see be made cardinalitial,but Pius XI was not willing to concede that to any Spanish see but Toledo and Sevilla…and since then Madrid and Barcelona,large but recently elevated sees,appear to have been added,while the most recent Cardinal in Seville (Amigo Vallejo) waited over twenty years for the red hat.Valencia takes turns with other sees there.
Louis, it appears as if some Vatican insiders disagree with you about Sambi’s eventual promotion to Rome coming too soon. Seems like it is all but a done deal with a one-way ticket to Rome come the Fall.
http://vaticaninsider.lastampa.it/en/homepage/news/detail/articolo/stati-uniti-us-usa-vaticano-vatican-vaticano-3408/
I also did some research on Spanish Scarlet. It does appear some had waited a long time, yet it seems like the Roman prognosticators believe that Benedict does not want them to wait for the Red. It appears to be one of his favorite countries. He has been there a few times already in his papacy with another trip this summer.
In my opiniony Marian Golebiewski from Poland has no chance to become a Cardinal. More possible is that Jozef Kowalczyk from Gniezno (Primate of Poland) wil be named a Cardinal during next Consistory. It is more important that Prumate of Poland is now again in Gniezno.
It would appear from your e-mail that you are from Poland. So YOU are closer to this than any of us and I would BOW to your knowledge and opinion.
Thank YOU. Please participate more. Cheers.
Hard luck on Archbishop Muszynski,only Polish Primate since 1915 not to be made Cardinal.There had been a string of Cardinals in Wroclaw,perhaps Golebiewski will be “their Musyznski” in that regard.What of the parish dispute evoked by another Pole in the comments on my list as hurting Kowalczyk’s chances?
Meanwhile,Domenico Calcagno (Feb 1943/Italian) has joined the queue of possibles after succeeding Cardinal Nicora at the Administration of the Patrimony of the Holy See.
The Primate of Spain was skipped last consistory,hardly consistent with a Spanish express ticket to the College.
Thank You, Anna. That is why Marian Golebiewski is coded as he is. I also took note and added Jozef Kowalczyk to the list.
How did my 12:53 come through as “Anonymous”?
I think Gołębiewski and Dew can be in group that not recieve the red had. They were appointed by John Paul II, and it’s possible that Gołębiewski and Dew met John Paul II criteria, but don’t met Benedict’s criteria to recieve red had. I think red had would not be given because of post holding. For me Kowalczyk don’t met my critera despite being primate of my country.
Very simple.
I had sent you an e-mail, recently, asking you about the # cardinals following the 2001 and 2003. You did not respond.
I then also remembered that you had ignored many other e-mails … when I have asked you for something.
*****
Though I know your e-mail is good, YOUR lack of responses to my e-mails is being treated by me … who can be more cussed than you ever imagined a human was capable of … as your e-mail against the comments is bogus. So I delete the e-mail … and with it YOUR name.
*****
You can’t get the FREE publicity YOU CRAVE … like an addict … if you are rude to me! My blog, my rules. Simple as that. I abhor rude people and alas there are many … quite a few.
*****
BUT, you don’t have to play if you don’t like my rules. I will GLADLY delete all your comments and posts … your cardinalabili list is now redundant anyway … with Fr. John’s list being much more germane. Just say the word.
Life is a two-way street other than on YOUR driveway.
Cheers.
Anura
You asked for information I had already given you a long time ago in my complete list of fluctuations in those numbers over the last forty years.It also got lost amid 76 junk emails between the two closest other non-junk messages I received.I don’t know what email you are saying is bogus,but “le@put.com” is my preferred email address despite the superfluous host name inserted by a misconfiguration of my mail server on my outgoing messages.
Excuses. Excuses.
I sent you the new Chapter 1 to review about a month ago.
I send you the complete Dwarf Planet book for comments months ago.
It is OK. You are OFF my e-mail list.
Cheers
Rotgild, I agree with you. I really do not think the “Primates” matter that much anymore. I will be interested to see if here in the United States that the Archbishop of Baltimore is ever made a Cardinal. Too many Red Hats close together and many are not the largest dioceses in the nation.
I’m a Plutonian partisan and the draft papabili chapter still had text based on the previous list.
Baltimore has an off-and-on history.But in the time of Cardinal Gibbons,he was seen as the leader of the RC Church in the USA,and before that Baltimore had hosted the plenary conferences.The severance of Washington from Baltimore (only in 1947 did Washington get a separate bishop) hurt Baltimore’s prestige but it’s still a cardinalitial possibility given an incumbent of sufficient stature/connections.
Note that the primatial Toledo is far from the largest see in Spain but still a cardinalitial certainty,if not at the first consistory of an incumbency.
Fr. John,
There are several reasons, why archbishop Kowalczyk (Archbishop of Gniezno and Primate of Poland) has the greatest chance of Poles get the red hat, of course, outside the archbishop Zimowski.
1. Gniezno is the oldest polish metropolitan, which was founded in 1000. Before the reform of the administration of the church in Poland in 1992 (by John Paul II) all polish primates official in Gniezno. Pope Benedict decided that after nearly 20 years the situation will return to the pre-1992. Pope decided that after retirement of Cardinal Primate Glemp, the title of Primate will return to Gniezno and will permanently belong to the Archbishop of Gniezno. Thus a situation occurred that was the Primate Archbishop Muszynski several months before his retirement. Now, he is 78, nearly 79 and it is possible that if Pope Benedict will continue his mission that Archbishop Muszynski will get red hat after 80 as non-elector Cardinal. It is very likely that apart from the situation of the Primate, also has the great merit of the Polish-German reconciliation and the close relationship with Cardinal Ratzinger.
2. The second reason is that in polish church Primate’s office is more important for historical reasons than in other countries and Pope has known it! Many Primates before Archbishop Kowalczyk had a red hat, Card. Glemp (as Primate 1981-2009, red hat in 1983), Card. Wyszynski (1948-1981, 1953), Card. Hlond (1926-1948, 1927), Card. Dalbor (1915-1926, 1919), next three short periods od Archbishops without red hats (possible that due to sudden depth (Abp Likowski 1914-1915, next vacancy in 1906-1914, Abp Stablewski 1891-1906 – had many problems with authorithies, fighter for the polish, Abp Dinder 1886-1890), and Card. Ledochowski (1865-1886, 1875).
3. The third reason is that Abp Kowalczyk was the apostolic nuncio to Poland between 1989-2009. It was an unprecedented situation because of the period and his contribution to the church. Sometimes, after all, when ex-Nuncio is appointed as the Metropolitan Pope give him a red hat. Now Abp Kowalczyk is 73 yo. If Pope would not want to reward him for his contribution as the Nuncio that survived to his retirement at the age of the 75.
Of course it is just my opinion but some facts speak for it.
Hi Anna,
In case Fr. John does not respond soon … I can give you the reason. He is in Boston attending a conference till this Wednesday, July 13. So he might be busy and not have time.
I am meeting him for dinner Wednesday.
So just a heads up.
Possible that we might not hear from him here till Friday. He is driving down from Boston to Philadelphia.
Thank you. All the best.
This, by the way, is very good.
Cheers, Anura
I think there is a mistake in the list. Francisco Chimoio, Archbishop of Maputo, isn’t 75. He actually is 63.
Regards, Hugo
Vigneron is young enough that he could still get it in a consistory after the next.Look at how long it took Amigo Vallejo and Degenhardt to get the hats after they were appointed to their historic sees.Baltimore has never had consecutive cardinals.
Just a reflection concerning cardinals of German origin on Fr. John´s list: The so-to-say most promising cardinalabile seems to me Rainer Maria Woelki the new archbishop of Berlin (designated just ten days ago). However it is obvious that Woelki in fact was Cardinal Meisner´s (archbishop of Cologne) desired candidate – Woelki who received his academic formation at Opus Dei institutions firstly was one of Meisner´s closest collaborators and then one of his auxiliary bishops. In Germany it is no secret that the extremely conservative (if not to call him “reactionary”) Meisner is rather influential in personal and administrative matters – among the cardinals he is one of those who maintain quite a close personal relationship with B XVI. It is also known that Meisner wants Woelki as his successor – besides it is a fact that Cologne as cardinalitial see is much more renowned than Berlin: One may suppose now that after Meisner´s retirement may happen the same as in 1988 when he was made archbishop of Cologne formally being “elected” (according to the local custom prescribed by the concordat) by the cathedral chapter who acted under enormous pressure on the part of JP II who quite imperiously demanded that his favourite candidate Meisner would be the new archbishop.
When in 2007 an archbishop for Munich was to be found Meisner launched Marx´s candidature (in Meisner´s eyes Marx being far too liberal) to get rid of him as a presumable successor. On the account of all the things said and written in the course of the it seems that Woelki shall be prepared for Cologne where Meisner supposedly will stay until his eightieth birthday (December 25, 2013) so I regard it as quite possible that despite his relatively young age he will be made a cardinal on the occasion of a next consistory.
Very helpful. Very informative — as only YOU can be. Much appreciated. Thank you. Beyond me, though. I have little or no interest in most things German.
Not sure about the glamorousness of the visions, all I know is that Pacelli seems to have had them often — like every time he turned around. Who, but God knows, it could have just been vertigo all his life. I have a picture of her c. 1935. I guess you have very high standards in your women, as a man of your status should … but … I could use at least two expressions us ‘boys’ use to describe women … but I will just quote the last part and pray that you get the drift. [Did I just say PRAY?] OK. “…. even if she ate biscuits in bed” (and I trust with your Irish blood you appreciate what biscuits are.
You really need to update your library. Since you have mentioned the lack of air-conditioning, I worry that the papyrus and parchment documents must be moldy by now. Maybe time for a Kindle.
Cheers.
The other clerical Electors of the Holy Roman Empire were the archbishops of Mainz and Trier,today of lesser stature than Cologne (Mainz is a regular diocese and Trier doesn’t get a Cardinal).I note that Cardinal Lehmann (of Mainz) is considered Cardinal Meisner’s archrival on the left,and was president of the bishops’ conference until stepping down on grounds of ill health…the Pope wanted Marx elected his successor but Lehmann got his preferred successor,the more liberal Zollitsch,despite any preference of Meisner.I don’t know if substituting Woelki for Sterzinsky would have made any difference,but Zollitsch is approaching retirement and we’ll see who comes next.
I am not sure if the German concordat prescribes election of bishops by cathedral chapters for more than a few sees,but I was referring to election as head of the German bishops’ conference.If Zollitsch was to the left of Marx,he was too far left for the Pope…he reaches 75,and the end of his term,in 2013 and we’ll see if the electorate then prefers someone more Meisnerian in outlook.
To the point about Philadelphia, it is still a large enough metropolis to continue to get red hats. Doubtful this time around given Chaput’s youth and how recent he was named Archbishop. At the consistory after this upcoming one is when Chaput will get his hat for Philadelphia. But I do agree that Baltimore and Detroit appear to be losing their traditional red-hat. But Vigneron of Detroit is young and could likely be moved a sure-fire Red Hat city (I’m thinking Chicago since Cardinal George turns 75 next year).
Darien, THANKS.
Just sent you an URGENT e-mail re. YOUR cardinalabili list. Itching to post it. Thanks.
Chaput’s place in line for a hat is definitely behind Dolan and probably Gomez if not Vigneron as well.It remains to be seen how much of a commitment to waiting for predecessors to turn 80 there is,as that is applied to some and not to others.(We appear headed for consistories in 2012,2014,and 2016 and Rigali turns 80 in 2015,and Mahony in 2016,but Los Angeles is larger (but more recently cardinalitial) than Philadelphia…then there’s the personality factor of possibly wanting to counterweight Mahony more than Rigali,and the sempai-kohei factor of Gomez being a former auxiliary to Chaput).
Anu, I replied to your email. Sorry that my list isn’t formatted. I’ve never been great shakes at anything beyond basic data-entry for spreadsheets. I guess that’s why my degree is in Religion and not Computers.