Louis, as those familiar with his work will know, has a very good track record when it comes to picking cardinalabili and predicting cardinal-creating consistory dates. When it came to the February 2012 consistory I think he nailed it, with the right date, 6 to 9 months ahead! So Louis can be impressive.
Right now he is thinking that a November, Christ the King, consistory is possible. I have some doubts — but I could be wrong.
Louis Epstein — Cardinalabili 2013 – 2014.
Here’s the current state of my file:
After the second 2012 consistory, it’s time for my standing draft list of possible Cardinals for the NEXT consistory to be updated. Benedict XVI seemed inclined to return to the Pius XI andJohn XXIII practice of having many small consistories but we don’t know what will happen with Pope Francis, and with a coming crush of 80th birthdays rushing things.
The vacancies for some of these people to fill won’t come into being yet for a while. . . but still. . .
(I resort to nameless successors for cardinalitial sees and posts whose incumbents are *already* over 75(where applicable), others of course may get vacated in the next few years).
John Atcherley Dew, Archbishop of Wellington–cardinalitial see, predecessor retired promptly and has aged out of the electorate(but hat keeps waiting. . . heterodox culture in archdiocese may bea reason)May 1948/New Zealand
Odon Marie Arsene Razanakolona, Archbishop of Antananarivo–consistently cardinalitial see, predecessor dead, already bypassed repeatedly May 1946/Madagascar
Orani Joao Tempesta, Archbishop of Rio de Janeiro–cardinalitial see, already bypassed, predecessor aged out June 1950/Brazilian
Vincent Nichols, Archbishop of Westminster–cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate, already bypassed November 1945/British
Braulio Rodriguez Plaza, Archbishop of Toledo–cardinalitial seeJan 1945/Spanish
Andre Leonard, Archbishop of Malines-Brussels–cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate, already bypassed May 1940/Belgian
Cesare Nosiglia, Archbishop of Turin–cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate Oct 1944/Italian
Ricardo Ezzati Andrello, Archbishop of Santiago de Chile–cardinalitial see Jan 1942/Chilean(Italian born)
Murilo Sebastiao Ramos Krieger, Archbishop of Sao Salvador de Bahia–cardinalitial see Sept 1943/Brazilian
Jose Horacio Gomez, Archbishop of Los Angeles in California–cardinalitial see Dec 1951/Mexican-United States
Gerald Cyprien Lacroix, Archbishop of Quebec–cardinalitial see July 1957/Canadian
Charles Chaput, Archbishop of Philadelphia–cardinalitial see Sept 1944/USA
Francesco Moraglia, Patriarch of Venice–cardinalitial seeMay 1953/Italian
Christian Lepine, Archbishop of Montreal–cardinalitial seeSept 1951/Canadian
Mario Aurelio Poli, Archbishop of Buenos Aires–cardinalitial see, succeeded Pope FrancisNov 1947/Argentinian
Manuel Jose Macario do Nascimento Clemente, Patriarch of Lisbon–cardinalitial see July 1948/Portugese
Jozef Kowalczyk, Archbishop of Gniezno–hitherto-cardinalitial primatial see, most recent cardinal is dead Aug 1938/Polish
Allen Henry Vigneron, Archbishop of Detroit–hitherto-cardinalitial see, predecessor has aged out of electorate Oct 1948/USA
Fausto Gabriel Travez Travez, Archbishop of Quito–new to usually-cardinalitial see, predecessor got hat after retiring March 1941/Ecuadorian
Sviatoslav Shevchuk, Major Archbishop of the Ukrainian Greek Catholics–cardinalitial see but astoundingly young for a modern Cardinal; ailing predecessor has aged out May 1970/Ukrainian
Whoever becomes Archbishop of Cologne
Whoever becomes Archbishop of Madrid
Whoever becomes Archbishop of Chicago
Whoever becomes Archbishop of Barcelona
Whoever becomes Archbishop of Palermo
Whoever becomes Archbishop of Bologna
Gerhard Ludwig Muller, Prefect of the Congregation for the Doctrine of the Faith–cardinalitial post, bypassed once Dec 1947/German
Pietro Parolin, Secretary of State-designate–cardinalitial postJanuary 1955/Italian
Zygmunt Zimowski, President of the Pontifical Council for Pastoral Care of Health Care Workers–generally-cardinalitial post, has waited April 1949/Polish
Jean-Louis Brugues, Archivist and Librarian of the Holy Roman Church–cardinalitial postNov 1943/French
Vincenzo Paglia, President of the Pontifical Council for the Family–usually-cardinalitial postApr 1945/Italian
Whoever becomes Major Penitentiary
Whoever becomes Prefect of the Congregation for the Causes of Saints
Whoever becomes President of the Pontifical Council for Migrants and Itinerants
Whoever becomes President of the Pontifical Council for Legislative Texts
The President of the Pontifical Council for Social Communications, Claudio Maria Celli (July 1941, Italian), whose predecessor left to be elevated as Grand Master of the Holy Sepulchre, seems a rung below eligibility. The same for the President of the Office of Labor of the Apostolic See, Giorgio Corbellini (April 1947, Italian) though Cardinals have held it; his additional appointment to head the Disciplinary Commission of the Roman Curia (succeeding a Cardinal) may possibly strengthen his position. Piero Marini of the Pontifical Committee for International Eucharistic Congresses is hard to categorize, as the post has previously gone to Cardinals stepping down from more important jobs, not men stepping up from lesser ones.
Georg Gaenswein(July 1956/German) by precedent would only be elevated on leaving his job as Prefect of the Pontifical Household, but with his patron leaving that might be soon. Lorenzo Baldisseri(Sept 1940/Italy) was secretary of the 2013 conclave, a post traditionally but not always promptly rewarded with the cardinalate; reportedly he was given the new Pope’s zucchetto as customarily signifies the elevation.
Jozef Piotr Kupny(Feb 1956), archbishop of Wroclaw, is another Polish candidate, if young, and his predecessor was not elevated. The status of Tadeusz Kondrusiewicz(Jan 1946) of Belarus is unclear. . . he succeeded a cardinal he once installed.
Nikola Eterovic, Secretary-General of the Synod of Bishops(Jan 1951, Croatian) is in a post whose holders seem to get to the cardinalate SLOWLY, and is still young enough to wait a while yet. . . so he’s been waiting.
Slovakia may be given an elector as the ailing Korec and Tomko have both aged out, presumably Stanislav Zvolenski(Nov 1958) of Bratislava, though his youth might delay his selection. Likewise notably young would be Ukraine’s Mieczyslaw Mokrzycki(Mar 1961), but despite his closeness to John Paul II Latin-Lviv’s cardinalitial track record is unclear. Armagh Coadjutor Eamon Martin(Oct 1961/UK) will likely be the next Irish cardinal, but not soon.
I expect that some African and Asian prelates will likely be added. Archbishop Alfred Adewale Martins (June 1959) succeeded Cardinal Okogiein Lagos, but his youth, and Cardinal Okogie having waited a long time, might indicate a wait for the hat unless the see’s growth has bearing; in November 2012 the more senior Archbishop of Abuja got preference. Ignace Ephrem Younan (Nov 1944/Syrian) is probably the likeliestEastern Rites Patriarch. Ibrahim Isaac Sidrak(Aug 1955/Egyptian) islikely in for a long wait though Alexandria of the Copts has as gooda cardinalitial track record as any Oriental see. Ikenaga (president of conference) or Okada (previous president) of Japanare options, since Japan now has no cardinals. Andrew Yeom Soo-jung(Dec 1943) replaced Korea’s non-elector cardinal as Archbishop of Seoul and would likely be that country’s next cardinal. Someone from Oceania (Apia-Samoa’s Alapati Mataeliga(Jan 1953), predecessoris dead, is a possibility) is likely. Jose Serof ia Palma (Mar 1950, Philippines)succeeded a cardinal as Archbishop of Cebu, hosts the next InternationalEucharistic Congress, and has waited. Other Filipinos mentioned include Lagdemeo and and Aniceto, both in their 70s, but neither’s see has ever had a Cardinal.
Certainly more Latin Americans. (Hard to say which, some seats rotate among small countries. . . the death of Guatemala’s only cardinal may increase the chances of Oscar Julio Vian Morales(Oct 1947) but predecessors waited). Carlos Aguiar Retes (Jan 1950, Mexican) became a serious candidate through election to the presidency of CELAM(his first VP was elevated). New Archbishop of Monterrey Rogelio Cabrera Lopez(Jan 1951) wouldestablish that see as cardinalitial if selected. In Brazil, some large seesare only establishing cardinalitial track records. Walmor Oliveira deAzevedo of Belo Horizonte (April 1954) and Jose Antonio Aparecido Tosi Marques of Fortaleza(May 1948) seem leading candidates, Sergio da Rocha of Brasilia (Oct 1959) is on the young and junior side.
Those who appear to have been passed over include Luigi de Magistris, former Pro-Penitentiary Major(Feb 1926), presumably lost his chance with the job(but was rumored as an over-80); Michael Louis Fitzgerald(August 1937/British), sent from the apparently cardinalitial post of President of thePontifical Council for Interreligious Dialogue to a nunciature from which he has retired; Raphael Ndingi Mwanaa Keki of Nairobi(Dec 1931), succeeded a cardinal but retired at 75 without the hat in favor of a man who immediatelygot it; Stanislaw Wielgus(April 1939/Polish), forced to step down as Archbishop of Warsaw over secret-police ties; Jan Sokol(Sept 1933), retired as Slovakia’s senior archbishop after both its electors had aged out; Robert Bezak(March 1960), abruptly removed as successor to part of Sokol’s divided see; Henryk Muszynski(March 1933/Polish), retired as Archbishop of Gniezno and Primate of Poland as the first such since 1915 nevermade a Cardinal; Marian Golebiewski(Sept 1937/Polish), archbishop of previously-cardinalitial Wroclaw; and the former dean of the Rota, Antoni Stankiewicz(Poland, Oct 1935), the post seems to have lost cardinalitial status though he was named archbishop in 2006. John Paul II did seem to of fer preferment to Poles. . . . not Benedict.