My Papabili List as of January 2011 — Sean T.
I based it on the assumption of this article, that the next Pope maybe ‘Non-Curial, with Clean Hands’. I also based a few candidates on the assumption they may be age 75+ at the next conclave. This List takes into account the November 20, 2010 Consistory.
To the best of my knowledge, none of them are Curialists (or Prefects/Presidents of Curial Departments). Out of 10, 3 were created Cardinals by John Paul II while the other 7 are made cardinals by Pope Benedict XVI. The list gives the ages of the Cardinals (as of 2011) and country of origin/ethnicity.
- Oscar Maradiaga, 69, Honduras
- Odilo Scherer, 62, German ethnicity, Brazil
- Philippe Barbarin, 61, Moroccan-Born, France
- Angelo Bagnasco, 68, Italy. Archbishop of Genoa
- Jorge Urosa, 69, Venezuela
- Lluis Sistach, 74, Spain
- John Njue, 67, Kenya
- Raul Chiriboga, 77, Ecuador
- Stanislaw Dziwisz, 72, Poland
- Jose Policarpo, 75, Portugal
1), 3) & 10) are made Cardinals by Pope JPII and the others BXVI, so for the other 7, it will be the 1st time they will be in a conclave. Policarpo is last on my list because of recent remarks about Catholic women marrying Muslim men, which are rather controversial. So far, other Cardinals (apart from Maradiaga) are ‘clean’ and don’t have ill remarks, as far as I know.
2) an interesting part of Scherer is he is a member of the Pontifical Council for Promoting the New Evangelisation, a very new Vatican body created by BXVI. It is tasked with re-evangelising traditionally Catholic countries that are experiencing secularisation (such as the traditional European countries). For a Brazilian Cardinal with German roots to be in this Council is rather interesting. Of the 10 Papabili, he is the only Cardinal who is a member of this Council. If he becomes Pope, he will be the 1st Latin American Pope overseeing a declining European flock, and will try to stem the decline. When Pope Benedict was elected, he may have been a last-ditch defense against secularism in Europe. Cardinal Scherer will be best positioned since he is white, of European ancestry, and from the Global South of Latin America.
4), my only Italian choice, is someone nobody will see as papabile. But his background is interesting. He was made priest by Cardinal Giuseppe Siri, and consecrated bishop by Dionigi Tettamanzi. The Diocese of Genoa is interesting, because it has not produced a Pope before (unlike more famous ones like Venice or Milan).
6) will be 75 soon. He will be involved in World Youth Day this year. Again, he has never participated in a consistory, and his name is obscure. My Spanish choice for Pope.
8) is a Cardinal who is 75+ in age. He will make a ‘Transitional Pope’, or someone like Benedict when elected (though it seems Benedict is not ‘Transitional’ nowadays. I feel bad calling someone ‘Transitional’ but there has to be a better word).
10) – we have not had a Portuguese Pope for a very long time, and like mentioned in other sources he may be someone who bridges the Latin American and European blocs.
And here are the reasons why I bypassed these candidates that are mentioned in your blog:
* Many of the Italian Cardinals appointed at Nov 2010 are now Curialists.
* Leonardo Sandri (Prefect of Oriental Churches), Antonio Llovera (Prefect of Divine Worship/Sacraments), Marc Ouellet (Prefect of Cong. of Bishops), Gianfranco Ravisi (Curialist) and Peter Turkson (President of Pontifical Council for Justice and Peace) are all insiders in the Vatican, so I did not include them.
Of course, it does not mean they may not be considered. In 2005 we have a Curialist (Ratzinger, with 20+ years experience) up against a non-Curialist (Bergoglio). The future conclave may be the same showdown. Although the elections of John Paul I and John Paul II, both non-Curialists, and Paul VI, who used to be a Curialist but not in the 11 years before his election, make me think this time it will likely be a non-Curialist who will become Pope.